The news that cars are getting bigger every year will not shock anyone. Whether you like the trend or not, a new study says that extra size comes with some pretty serious consequences. The researchers argue that if today’s growth trajectory continues to 2040, cities could face a loss of parking spaces, vulnerable road users more at risk, and drivers could ultimately pay more to get around. The question is whether lawmakers will try to put an end to the car boom before consumers do.
As Carscoops reports, a new report from the European organization Transport & Environment (T&E) and Clean Cities analyzes what it calls “carspreading“, that is, the steady increase in vehicle dimensions across Europe. According to the study, newly sold cars grew by an average of 1.2 cm in length and 0.5 cm in height each year, while previous research by the same organization showed that hood width and height also increased by approximately half a centimeter per year. This pattern, sometimes referred to as “autobesity” or car obesity, has been going steady since 2000, even as the number of families buying these vehicles has been shrinking.
A multidimensional problem
The report compares two possible futures. In one scenario, automakers continue to follow current market trends, with larger vehicles and an increasing share of SUV sales. In another, lawmakers are pushing what researchers describe as “size optimization,” gradually returning average vehicle dimensions to 2010-2015 levels.
If vehicles continue to grow, the consequences will be felt in all segments of society. Researchers estimate that cities could lose between 8.5 and 14 percent of their on-street parking capacity by 2040. London and Berlin alone are predicted to lose around 100,000 places each. In some areas this may not be a big problem, but in densely populated cities it is a serious issue on a global scale.
Security is another key focus. T&E cites previous studies linking higher bonnet heights to more severe consequences for pedestrians and cyclists. Using these findings, the researchers estimate that continuing current trends could result in approximately 2,570 additional deaths of vulnerable road users by 2040 compared to the size optimization scenario. Other studies are even more direct, showing that SUVs are two to three times more likely to kill a pedestrian in a crash compared to sedans.
Energy consumption also plays an important role. Larger vehicles are generally heavier and use more energy, whether they are powered by gasoline or electricity. T&E estimates that by 2040, with the current growth trend, the European fleet of electric vehicles would require an additional 22.5 terawatt-hours of electricity per year. More than 100 million additional barrels of imported oil are also projected over the same period due to internal combustion vehicles remaining in use.
Proposed solutions
Not surprisingly, the proposed solutions are what many will consider aggressive. The report calls for bonnet height limits to 85cm, width limits to 192cm, taxes linked to vehicle dimensions, size-based parking charges and regulatory incentives reserved exclusively for smaller electric vehicles shorter than 4.2 metres. H
whether these ideas will come to life is a completely different question. Consumers have spent the last two decades voting with their wallets in favor of SUVs and crossover. That said, the automakers are probably more to blame than most people realize.