The decline in the birth rate has become a global phenomenon that affects not only developed countries but also middle- and lower-income countries. One of the more interesting explanations for this trend comes from sociologist Alice Evans of King’s University London, who believes that smartphones play a key role in the sharp decline in the number of births in the last decade.
In an interview with The New York Times in May 2023, Evans argued that smartphones have contributed to the alienation of men and women. According to her explanation, young people around the world spend more and more time alone in their rooms using their phones, which reduces social contacts, the number of marriages and ultimately the number of children.
In an interview with the Vox portal, Evans additionally emphasized that state policies that encourage childbirth often miss the essence of the problem. Programs that offer financial incentives for families have limited effect because they focus on married couples, while fewer young people are getting married at all. According to her, young people first of all need social conditions that encourage getting to know each other and socializing.
Global birth rate decline accelerated after the spread of smartphones
A stable population requires a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman. However, many countries today have significantly lower values. In Mexico, the rate is around 1.55, in Sri Lanka 1.37, in Colombia 1.06, while in Thailand it is only 0.98.
The decline in the birth rate is also accelerating in regions where a higher birth rate was previously expected. For example, in Egypt, the fertility rate has fallen from 3.5 in 2015 to 2.8 in 2023, even though the female employment rate is only about 16%. A similar trend was observed in Tunisia.
The Nordic countries, known for their strong social policies and support for families, also recorded a decline. In Sweden, the fertility rate fell from 1.9 in 2010 to 1.4 in 2023, while Norway and Finland recorded a similar trend.
The most drastic example is South Korea, where the rate dropped from 1.2 in 2015 to only 0.7 in 2023. In China, the fertility rate has fallen from 1.7 to about 1.0.
Evans believes that a key factor is the rapid proliferation of smartphones after 2010. Global phone shipments reached around 1.4 billion devices already in 2015, while social networks like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and TikTok exploded in user numbers.
Today, young people spend a large part of their free time with digital content, from sports broadcasts to music videos, without having to leave their homes. The average American spends as much as a third of their waking hours using a smartphone or computer, while the percentage is probably even higher among younger generations.
As the time spent on the phone increases, the number of face-to-face meetings between people decreases. Correspondence replaces conversation, social networks reduce physical contact, and the ability to develop relationships weakens. This reduces the opportunities to meet a partner.
For example, in South Korea, the number of marriages in 2024 fell to only 73% of the 2015 level. In China, the number of marriages fell from about 12 million in the early 2010s to about 6.1 million in 2024.
Although factors such as high housing costs or intense competition in education also contribute to the decline in birth rates, Evans believes digital isolation caused by smartphones is playing an increasingly important role. She warns that the further development of artificial intelligence could further strengthen this isolation if society does not find a way to encourage direct communication between people again, reports MSN.