Space debris is becoming a growing problem not only in orbit but also in the Earth’s atmosphere. On average, once a week some part of the spacecraft or satellite enters the atmosphere uncontrolled. Most of these objects burn up due to the extreme heat and friction, but some parts can survive long enough to fall through the airspace used by commercial aircraft. Although the probability of a direct hit is low, experts warn that the risk increases as the number of satellites and launches increases.
Research shows that there is a serious chance that space debris during an uncontrolled entry into the atmosphere will pass through some of the busiest air corridors. Although the chances of an object actually hitting an aircraft are small, the consequences could be catastrophic, as even a relatively small fragment can seriously endanger an aircraft, especially if it enters a jet engine. The European Space Agency points out that airplanes are also sensitive to small particles, similar to the risks posed by volcanic ash.
More and more space debris, a growing challenge for civil aviation
The case of the Chinese Long March 5B missile in 2022, a large part of which passed over Europe and led to the closure of Spanish airspace, showed how complex decisions in such situations are. The problem is further aggravated by the fact that forecasts of the place and time of entry of objects into the atmosphere are still very imprecise, often with deviations of several hours and thousands of kilometers.
Experts are working to improve the model and collect more accurate data, including future missions such as ESA’s DRACO project, which will closely monitor the disintegration of satellites during atmospheric entry. In parallel, international organizations and aviation authorities are trying to develop clear standards to decide when airspace closure is really necessary.
Despite the growing concern, experts stress that the average traveler should not fear. The probability of space debris hitting an aircraft is still extremely low compared to everyday risks. The goal of the new rules and technologies is to further reduce that risk, so that the eventual return of space debris goes almost unnoticed for passengers and air traffic, writes Space.