A serious geopolitical dispute has started between Washington and the Dutch technology giant ASML. As reported BloombergUS Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick conveyed to company leaders in a series of recent meetings ASML concern that one of their extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines—the only system on the planet capable of printing the most advanced semiconductors—had ended up in China.
If this turns out to be true, it would represent a dramatic violation of strict export controls that have expressly prohibited ASML from selling EUV equipment to China since the first Trump administration.
Serious allegations without public evidence
Senior US administration officials claim they have evidence that ASML supplied components related to EUV technology and related transportation equipment to China. However, Washington has repeatedly refused to show this evidence publicly – both to the media and to ASML itself.
On the other hand, the Dutch company categorically rejects these claims. Company representatives say that no such machine exists in China or has ever arrived there.
For now, the US Department of Commerce is ignoring reporters’ inquiries about whether they actually have hard evidence that a functioning EUV system is on Chinese soil.
Why ASML is the most important company
Although the average consumer has probably never heard of ASML, it is by far the most important link in the global development of artificial intelligence, next to the company Nvidia. ASML has an absolute world monopoly on the production of EUV machines. Without them, it is physically impossible to print the microscopic circuits that define state-of-the-art chips.
Every high-end processor produced today by Taiwan’s TSMC—a factory that exclusively makes chips for Nvidia AI systems and Apple devices—depends directly on ASML’s tools. The development of this technology lasted two decades and consumed billions of dollars, and in the world at the moment there is no other supplier. Thanks to this monopoly, ASML became the most valuable public company in Europewith a market capitalization this week hovering around 700 billion dollars.
Precisely because of this position, the American fear is justified. If just one such machine were to fall into Beijing’s hands, it would completely nullify years of US efforts to cut off China’s military and industry from advanced AI capabilities.
“You can’t copy something you don’t have”
General Manager of ASML, Kristof Fokepoints out that the company has rigorous protection systems. According to him, ASML tracks literally every machine it has ever delivered. They are either in active use with strictly monitored customers or have been dismantled and returned to the Netherlands.
Also, there is an impenetrable security wall within the company. Employees who have access to EUV technology, documentation and training are completely isolated from the rest of the company. ASML personnel stationed in China are by design on the “wrong side” of that wall and have no access to the most advanced secrets.
Foke also adds an economic logic that demolishes the theory of secret sales. ASML is quite legally selling older generation equipment (so-called DUV systems) to China, and these deliveries are planned to amount to approx. 20% of the company’s total revenue for 2026. By risking an EUV ban, ASML would be putting its revenues and status as the largest monopolist on the line for just one illegal sale.
Hidden interests: American money and the hunt for monopoly
Although there are no official confirmations that things are connected, analysts point to the interesting timing of the pressure from Washington. The US Department of Commerce, under Lutnik’s leadership, invested 150 million dollars of state money in the startup at the end of last year xLightwhich is developing next-generation light source technology with the clear goal of challenging ASML’s EUV monopoly in the long term.
At the same time, a famous billionaire Piter Tilwhich has close ties to the White House, is funding another startup called Substratewhich directly develops competing EUV technology.
While the fight for investments takes place in the background, the pressure on the Netherlands is also growing from the political side. In April, the US Congress passed a key law that goes one step further than the EUV system – it requires it a complete ban on the delivery of even older DUV machines to China.
If this law enters into force, ASML will be without the mentioned fifth of its projected revenues for this year overnight.