The upper part of a Chinese commercial rocket launched in early June disintegrated in space. This incident led to the spread of the debris in the frequency part of the low Earth orbit, where they are located International Space Station (MSS) and a significant part of the broadband network Starlink companies SpaceX.
The breakup occurred shortly after the Zhuque-2E rocket entered orbit on June 9 with two satellites for direct communication with mobile phones. This probably happened when the upper stage was about to perform a controlled burn maneuver for safe removal. The US Space Force confirmed this event on its website space-track.orgwhich the military uses to publicly share orbit data.
Assessment of the number of fragments and potential danger
The US Space Force has not yet added these fragments to the official catalog of man-made space objects. From the Orbital Reconnaissance Company LeoLabs they told the media that this incident probably generated between 100 and 150 new pieces space debris.
The second stage of the Zhuque-2E rocket, produced by a Chinese company LandSpacein one piece was between 8 and 9 meters long and 3.35 meters in diameter. The main body of the rocket’s upper stage now orbits at an altitude in between 335 and 424 kilometersat an inclination of 54.5 degrees in relation to the equator.
The highest point of this orbit intersects the orbit of the International Space Station. However, aerodynamic drag will quickly drag any fragments below the altitude at which the MSS is located. On the other hand, this debris could pose a greater threat to hundreds of Starlink satellites. This is especially true for newly launched devices and those that allow direct connection to smartphones, as they fly at lower altitudes than the rest of the Starlink constellation.
The good news is that this altitude is low enough that atmospheric drag will cause most of the Zhuque-2E rocket debris to re-enter the atmosphere within a few months. Most of the material will burn during this process. The worst-case scenario is incidents that occur at altitudes above 650 kilometers, where objects take several decades or longer to naturally fall back into the atmosphere.
China’s space debris growth trend
This breakup represents a continuation of China’s growing contribution to the space debris problem. After decades of leaving spent rocket parts in orbit, operators in most countries today leave enough fuel for a controlled return of the upper stages to Earth. Missile bodies belonging to Russia and the former Soviet Union make up most of the debris in long-lived orbits, followed by China and the United States.
However, while Russian and American numbers decline or stagnate, the mass of Chinese missile bodies in long-lived orbits has increased by more than 150 percent in the last five years. This data comes from an analysis by space situational awareness expert, Jim Schell. This increase coincides with China’s decision to intensify launches of its own mega-constellations, which are designed to compete directly with the Starlink network.
Missile bodies represent the most critical source of space debris. They are generally large and massive, often containing residual propellant and high-pressure gases that can cause an explosion. If they are left in orbit after the payload is released, there is no way to maneuver them or remove them remotely.
China’s Long March 6A rocket has a particularly bad history, including two explosions that contaminated a higher orbit with more than 1,000 fragments of debris, where they will remain for decades or centuries. explains Ars Technica.